2026 under pressure: economic, tech, and geopolitical threats

January 21, 2026 2 min read

Rising conflicts, economic pressure, and environmental threats in 2026 demand integrated strategies for security and continuity.

Table of Contents

Are we prepared for a world where crisis is no longer the exception but the norm?

A new report warns that 2026 will be marked by simultaneous risks that will test governments, businesses, and societies alike.

Fear, uncertainty, and adaptation have become part of daily life in many regions around the world. Persistent conflicts, strained economies, and technologies advancing faster than regulations paint a scenario in which anticipating events is no longer an advantage, but an urgent necessity.

This is the starting point of the annual strategic report The World in 2026, presented by Prosegur Research, which analyzes how the convergence of economic, geopolitical, social, and technological crises is shaping a global polycrisis.
The study emphasizes that this context compels both governments and businesses to strengthen their anticipatory capabilities, reduce uncertainty, and enhance resilience.

The analysis identifies five structural trends that explain the main emerging challenges and risks in an international environment characterized by extreme competition, power fragmentation, and the normalization of conflict.

Related Posts:

Power in Transformation

The first trend is diffuse power. The international system is moving toward unstable multipolarity, where major powers and regional actors operate with greater autonomy in a shifting landscape. This process is accompanied by a rapid democratic erosion—what Prosegur Research terms “galloping autocracy”—and a sustained increase in active conflicts, reaching levels unseen since World War II.

Secondly, the report highlights geoeconomics as a central axis of global power. In a context of moderate growth and global debt exceeding 230% of world GDP, trade, tariffs, access to strategic resources, technological restrictions, and regulation are redefining value chains at an international scale.

Rising Social Tension

The third trend is social empowerment, driven by demographic shifts, accelerated urbanization, and growing territorial and generational divides. These factors fuel greater social polarization, erode trust in institutions, and pose new challenges for social cohesion.

Technological convergence emerges as the fourth key axis. Control over data, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence is consolidating as a source of power asymmetries among global actors.
At the same time, the interconnection between physical and digital environments expands the risk surface and exposes new vulnerabilities.

Critical Security

Finally, the report identifies the environment as a structural risk factor. Fires, floods, and droughts are no longer exceptional events but recurrent patterns affecting infrastructure, logistics, and people, placing resilience and adaptive capacity at the core of operational continuity.

In this context, Prosegur Research defines 2026 as the year of critical security, marked by hybrid threats in which essential infrastructures become strategic assets.

The convergence of security and defense reinforces the value of capabilities such as anticipation, intelligence, and operational resilience.

The report also warns that, for businesses, the growing interdependence between physical and digital realms increases structural risks and demands a comprehensive security vision, leaving behind fragmented or isolated approaches.

According to José María Blanco, Director of Prosegur Research,

“The evolution of global risk is forcing a profound redefinition of the concept of security, shifting it from reactive and sectoral to strategic and integrated.”

Access the full report here.