2026 investing: spotting opportunities beyond the obvious
Can 2026 restore investor confidence without erasing the caution learned?
Amid normalization, resilience, and selective opportunities, markets enter a decisive year.
The beginning of 2026 finds investors navigating a mix of expectation, prudence, and confidence: volatility appears to be easing, yet the future demands decisions that are more human, disciplined, and selective than ever.
Far from a flat scenario, the new year opens the door to selective opportunities across asset classes, in a context marked by market normalization and the ability to adapt to an environment still in transition.
Portfolio managers and strategists across the Natixis Investment Managers ecosystem agree that 2026 will not be an automatic year for returns. Discipline, diversification, and selectivity are central to navigating a world where opportunities exist but are not immediately obvious.
Against this backdrop, investment professionals from Natixis Investment Managers and its affiliated firms shared their projections for the year, covering private real estate, fixed income, equities, private equity, ETFs, and retirement security trends. Below are the main expectations for 2026:
2026 Outlook: A Promising Future for Prime Real Estate Returns in Europe.
By: Hans Vrensen, Director of Research and Strategy for Europe, AEW Europe.
Vacancy rates across most core European real estate sectors continued to decline after the 2025 pandemic, driving positive projections for prime rent growth. Office vacancy is expected to peak at 8% by the end of 2025, before falling to 6% by 2030.
In logistics, vacancy has risen to around 6% from historic lows recorded three years ago. As supply decreases and rebalances with demand, logistics vacancy is projected to decline to 4% by 2030.
Our projections indicate an average intersectoral prime rent growth of 2% per year between 2026 and 2030, led by the prime residential segment at 3%, followed by offices and logistics.
In contrast, high street retail and shopping centers are expected to grow below average, reflecting sectoral disparities.
Commercial real estate financing has become increasingly favorable, offering competitive costs for equity investors in the Eurozone, where debt rates hover around 4% versus intersectoral prime yields above 5%.
Efforts by banks and debt funds to expand access to financing have increased competition and improved refinancing conditions.
While France has seen a rise in its financing gap, countries such as the UK, Spain, and Italy maintain gaps well below the European average, highlighting a diverse landscape for the pending challenge of refinancing legacy debt.
Investor sentiment remains strongest toward residential and logistics segments, although offices and retail are regaining ground. Alongside an increase in capital raising, AEW projects transaction volumes of up to €200 billion in 2025 and €220 billion in 2026.
The narrowing of purchase-to-sale spreads and the compression of prime yields reflect a positive momentum.
The average total prime return across all sectors, in AEW’s base scenario, is projected at 8.4% per year for 2026–2030 across the 196 European market segments analyzed.
Offices are expected to deliver the highest total returns at 9.3% per year, followed by shopping centers at 8.6%. By country, the UK market is projected to offer the highest average total return at 10.3%, driven by strong current yields, while Central and Eastern Europe and Spain also show solid projections.
Hope for 2026.
By: Christophe Gilbert, Portfolio Manager, DNCA.
After a 2025 marked by geopolitical turbulence but notable economic resilience, 2026 begins under the banner of renewed growth hope.
This is particularly true in the Eurozone, thanks to the implementation of recovery plans, and also in the United States, where the rapid rollout of energy infrastructure and AI-linked data centers should translate into a significant increase in investment.
Persistent high fiscal deficits could also offset weaker consumption, a result of labor markets affected by lower workforce demand and limited labor supply (aging populations and reduced immigration).
Inflation does not appear to pose a real risk in 2026, although greater dispersion within indices is possible due to political tensions, trade barriers, strong demand for commodities linked to the energy transition and AI, and shortages of skilled workers.
While the short-term risk of a significant inflation surge may be avoided, the geopolitical environment could trigger unexpected price spikes.
Central banks are no longer expected to drive economic momentum, as most monetary adjustments have already occurred, generally limiting actions to maintaining current short-term rates or gradually moving toward their equilibrium levels, which are already near expectations.
Financial market pressures could arise in bond markets due to the high global capital demand from governments and significant investments in new technologies.
If these tensions intensify, they could affect equity markets through returns and valuations and raise investor concerns about the debt of more fragile states.
2026: Private Equity at the Crossroads of Liquidity, Consolidation, and AI.
By: Eric Deram, Managing Partner, Flexstone Partners.
In 2025, the small- and mid-cap private equity market showed signs of revival, with a rebound in investment and divestment activity and stable valuations.
The secondary market is on track to surpass US$200 billion in transactions, the largest volume in its history. Looking ahead, the question remains: are we finally emerging from the liquidity drought that has defined recent years?
We believe 2026 will mark both a recovery and a transformation for private equity. Exit volumes are expected to exceed the 2021 peak, supported by falling interest rates and reduced geopolitical tensions. The reopening of the IPO market will provide an additional boost.
However, despite increased activity, significant valuation improvements are unlikely. General partners, pressured to generate liquidity, will be forced to sell assets at suboptimal prices, particularly as dependence on GP-led continuation vehicles decreases.
At the same time, the industry faces structural changes. Fundraising will become increasingly polarized, with 40% of capital flowing to the ten largest firms. Survival for small- and mid-sized managers will be challenging, and conferences may resemble thriller scenes more than growth celebrations.
Zombie funds will proliferate, while fundless sponsor deals gain prominence. Greater consolidation among the largest players is also likely, driven by succession challenges and the need for scale in retail markets.
Technology will play a defining role. More than half of private equity firms are expected to appoint a Chief AI Officer, reflecting the integration of artificial intelligence in both operations and investment processes.
Regardless of whether an AI bubble exists, efficiency gains and improved decision-making are too significant to ignore.
Finally, retail investors will continue transforming the market. Semi-liquid evergreen products are gaining traction, attracting both institutional and individual investors due to their simplicity and liquidity profile.
These vehicles will capture an increasing share of private asset allocations, reinforcing the ongoing trend toward democratization.
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